Mathematical Modeling and Prediction of Road Accident Risk in Urban Traffic Systems

Foziljon Mamadaliev

Авторы

Foziljon Mamadaliev Kokand State University

Annotatsiya

Road traffic accidents remain one of the leading causes of fatalities worldwide, particularly in urban environments with high traffic density. This study proposes a novel mathematical framework for modeling and predicting accident risk based on traffic flow parameters, driver behavior, and environmental factors. A composite risk function integrating traffic density, speed variance, and reaction time is developed. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively predicts high-risk traffic conditions. The findings contribute to road safety analysis and intelligent transportation systems (ITS).

Keywords: road safety, accident prediction, mathematical modeling, traffic risk, ITS.

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